My thoughts on the Apple Tablet
Lots of news surrounding the Apple tablet that is rumoured to be announced next week thanks to much consumer desires and appropriately timed 'leaks' from Apple themselves.
Starting off, the concept of a tablet device is not new, tablet PC's were pushed a few years ago and failed for a couple primary reasons
• They were just laptops with touch sensitive screens and fancy rotating hinges that often broke
• The OS on them was geared for desktops and laptops, not tablets so not all software was compatible with the touch screens.
At the end of the day, these devices pretty much tanked. A small market of graphics artists still use them, but generally speaking they're overpriced, clunky, and not really a full transition device to a handheld walking around taking notes device. The fact that most of these units still had optical drives in them was a testament to them not being in a class of their own, but rather a Frankenstein creation of existing technology with touch screen screwed to the interface almost like an afterthought.
Out of the ashes of this fiasco, netbooks were born, small lightweight laptops that allowed people to take them everywhere and accomplish basic everyday tasks. Netbooks have their own issues though, the small size and underpowered processor and RAM in most of them mean they are are pretty much limited to browsing, email, note taking and slideshows. Doing any real work or play on them would be an exercise in frustration, as the machines sacrificed performance for portability, in a large way.
HP and other makers have realized the error of the tablet PC, and have started making tablet only devices, but the backbone of these units is and always will be a PC UI, that is that they are geared for productivity - designed mostly to create documents and data files, work with and analyze said documents, and at the end of the day, spit out something useful, something that pays the bills.
The problem is, other than in the enterprise, people don't want to be productive when they're mobile or lounging around the house in their jammies, they want to be social and play, and only one company, Apple, has leveraged this fact to rocket a line of mobile devices to the top of the everyday user popularity list.
The iPhone and iPod touch
When Apple released the touchscreen iPhone, I knew it would only be a matter of time before they came out with a phone-less version iPod. Hey presto, a year later there was one, and although it's sold well, it still falls short of the popularity of it's sibling, the iPhone, mostly because the iPod touch is more expensive, the phone versions are subsidized by the mobile contract, making the initial pocket shock to the consumer much easier to swallow, and the smaller more portable nano and shuffle versions are much less expensive.
Regardless, Apple has realized that the interface on the iPhone and iPod Touch is a winner, and they're betting on that interface, and the usage habits of people that already own these devices to make the Apple Tablet a big hit.
What the Tablet will be
You only need to use two words: Information Appliance. In essence, this device will be a ramped up iPod touch with a larger screen and possibly expandable memory and a camera, but that's about it. It'll still function the same way as the iPhone and Touch, and it will rely on iTunes to connect to your desktop. This device will be perfect for checking facebook, twittering, viewing photos, light email duties, web surfing, and personal video watching.
Like the iPhone and iPod touch this will also be a gaming platform, as it will be able to keep up with the lighter weight but still king of the hill (for now) Nintendo Gameboy line of products. We won't see Mario and his friends on it any time soon, Apple has gone to length to upset Nintendo too much to allow that to happen until it HAS to happen, but people who love solitaire and bejeweled will frolic in the streets, and about their homes and gardens with the tablet device powering up to play these simple idle time games wherever and whenever they want, without having to be hunched over a 4 inch screen. The video playback capabilities and the rumored 10 inch screen will be nice for catching back issues of TV shows without having to fire up the PVR or PC and kick the rest of the family out of the living room, angsty teens will be able to watch that missed episode of Vampire Diaries in the comfort of their own rooms with earbuds firmly placed to avoid any distracting family that may want to intrude on their misunderstood lives and soccer moms will be able to watch Dr. Phil with girlfriends at the coffee shop wherever broadband is accessible.
What the Tablet will not be
This device will not be meant to type school reports, compose letters to clients or even engage in lengthy email replies. Even blogging will be a nightmare on this device with it's touch interface being the bane of anyone who types at more than 5 wpm.
I've seen people talking about the implications of this device in the Photography industry, and although it will be able to show off your photos, it will not be any use in the editing or production of said photos. Nor will you be able to mix music on them or craft flash animations, this device is strictly a playback device with some interactive feedback abilities.
It is not an ebook reader, although that won't stop people from reading ebooks on them. E-readers have insane battery life because they don't use any power at all except when turning or updating pages, these units will use juice every moment they're on meaning that batteries will not last long enough to actually make it through a 300 page novel. This isn't going to be an issue for most people because they'll only read a couple chapters at a time before re-charging the unit, but for those who are a little more adventurous and take their reading seriously, the novel tablet will not be the backpacker's choice any more than an automotive GPS will be the choice of backwoods fishermen over handheld topographical GPS units.
This device will not replace a computer or a phone, but it will allow those who really don't know how to use a computer to participate in the exciting world of online socializing and networking. In short, this will not be a real computer, rather a no-training-required fun device for those who wish to participate in an increasingly technical world, without having to learn anything technical, in other words, the perfect device for most users. Also, at the size of small netbook in overall size, this will not be the device you simply throw in your pocket for everyday use on the bus, train, or wherever, it's too big for that. This unit is something you'll use at home when you're not able to access the computer, or something you'll take out and about for a purpose.
Who's going to benefit from the tablet?
Saying Apple and their shareholders is a no-brainer, with every Boom uttered by Steve Jobs at the announcement, stock prices will surge up a notch.
Application developers will benefit too, but not as much as you would think. Big name developers will do well, as will those who develop free apps for marketing purposes and sell them to big companies to give away at their websites. Small application houses though and independent application developers will not make so much money as they would like, as their apps will be cheap and Apple will take a fair chunk of the profits off the top.
Professional IT people will benefit from the device as more and more unskilled enterprise users move to this sort of device, the less time the IT professionals will have to waste answering those home computer based questions everyone loves - "I think my kids downloaded a virus to our home PC, what should we do about it?" or my personal favorite was "I'm trying to edit a video on the software that came with my PC, I don't know how to import, work with or even the name of the software I have but I think the logo has a round thing in it. How do I use this?"
Third party accessory makers have been drooling over this since it was first dreamed up in fantasy rumor land. A new format iPod, in essence, means a whole new line of accessories for it, because this product will come with scant accessories other than a dock cable out of the box. Expect a whole line of cases, skins, stands, speakers, charging stations, car adapters, seat brackets, etc. to suddenly appear overnight, and like the other iPod lines, most consumers will spend at least one dollar on accessories for every dollar spend on the device itself, effectively doubling the economic impact of the device on the average user.
Who's going to be hurt by the table?
The list is long and distinguished:
• Makers of portable DVD players
• Makers of ebook readers (though this is not a true ebook reader, it will be marketed as such)
• Makers of Netbooks (though, not as much because netbooks are still ideal for students who take notes)
• Makers of Digital Photo Frames
• Makers of handheld Gaming systems (PSP Go is tanked. The end)
• Makers of PVR's and DVD/blu-ray consoles
Last but not least, consumers, or at least their wallets. Although this thing is about the size of and costs as much as a netbook to make, they will probably be much more expensive, the proverbial Apple Tax. Netbooks currently market for around three hundred CAD for a middle of the road unit, and can cost as much as four hundred for larger, sexier, more powerful units, which isn't bad since they only cost around two hundred to make, so the mark up from supplier to consumer is only about 50%. The tablet is rumored to be more in the four to six hundred range, so bet on an even five hundred once taxes are in to be the going street price. Being about the same size, and having much less memory to offset the cost of production, you're talking about a device that still costs the supplier about two hundred, with a three hundred dollar price difference being passed on to the end user, about 150% profit.
Still, people will be willing to pay this mark up, because the device will be exactly what they want, and convenience has it's own price, so don't be hung up on the initial cost.
Consumers will take it hard in the wallet in the before mentioned accessory market, and also on the application and media front. It's an interesting dilemma that if you compare the cost of a downloadable application to that of a cartridge application, those who download applications still, at the end of each billing cycle, tend to spend 150% more on applications and media than those who purchase more traditional versions. This is simply due to perception, someone buying a gameboy game for thirty dollars that the kids will tire of in a week feels the impact of that immediately, not to mention having to physically go to the store and purchase the cartridge. A similar title from the apps store will only cost ten dollars, not even worth fussing about, nor is there the inconvenient going out of the house aspect, a couple clicks on screen, and you can be playing a similar game in minutes, and best of all, people tend to forget those purchases until the bill comes at the end of the month. Practically speaking, a parent is only likely to buy one or two cartridges for their family per month, where they are more apt to download six to ten from the app store. This same casual download attitude also applies to media, music and TV, which will now be much more appealing due to the larger size of the screen. Going on a two hour flight, why not download two or three episodes of Wizards of Waverly Heights for your tween at the airport to keep them quiet, after all, they're only 5 dollars each, when suddenly you realize you're shelling out the cost of a movie ticket extra every time you have to do groceries or go to the dentist.
Clever marketing is what Apple really excels at, and they've been setting the stage for this device for the last year. Many of the games available for the iPhone and iPod have the ability to play between close proximity devices. Apple even shows a 3-way air hockey game on the commercials, and doubtless social games like this will exist and be promoted on the tablet. This will lead to people purchasing tablets simply to play peer games at social nights. It's not hard to imagine the social pressure on one middle class individual from his friends when he shows up for poker night, and finds them all sitting with tablets at the ready…'Oh, no one told you? We play tablet poker…' The group may grudgingly put away the shiny tablets and get a real deck of cards so their friend can play that night, but you can be certain he won't be returning without a freshly unpacked tablet the next time an invite comes his way. This is exactly what Apple wants, and I bear them no malice for using this kind of social marketing, but you just know that someone's kids are going to be living on KD & wieners a whole lot more so that mom and dad can keep up with one more aspect of the Jones' life.
Why we think they're going to be really cool
Anybody remember the movie Demolition Man? Most people remember the scenes where Sandra Bullock mixes 20th century metaphors with hilarious results, but do you remember that device used at the beginning to make phone calls? Yes, it was a video tablet, a hand held unit with a touch screen and a front facing camera that you can walk around your home with and make video calls, then with a touch of a button flip it to read the paper and watch the news. That's what we have in mind when we think of this still in the closet product, and it even gives me the butterflies.
We've been watching sc-fi for years and they've had tablets like this on TV and movies since the 80's, and frankly this is probably the third most anticipated device most people can envision only to be outdone by George Jetson's flying car and Kirk's communicator, which we already have (thanks Motorola!).
What's really going to suck about them
Battery life, capped memory and features added to new models every year.
Like every iPod and Phone, Apple seals the batteries and provides no slot for adding additional memory, so what you buy is all you get, when that's not enough the only solution is to buy a bigger, better model. Apple also has a nasty habit to not include all the features you'll want in the first release, take the FM tuner in the current crop of iPods for example. Other media players had FM tuners for years, but Apple kept on selling it as an add-on and people bought it. Same can be said for voice recording, the first generation Creative Zen had both these features before color screens were available, yet Apple waited a further 5 generations before bundling them, and many consumers purchased 6 full generations of the iPod. Expect the same thing with the forward facing camera and Skype-ish appicaions on the tablet, generation one will have none of them, and they will be added as new features in later generations encouraging you to drop another half a grand each and every year, not to mention re-purchasing all your apps and media because you forgot to back that crap up before you synchronized your new tablet.
What the hell is it going to be called
More rumors and guessing, so I'm going to guess too. The most popular floating around names out there are iSlate and iBook, but I think that iPad is probably a solid contender for the latest Steve Job's i-creation. The logic is simple, it's only one letter off from the iPod, meaning that it'll market itself on familiarity, that is, our culture has accepted the iPod as the interchangeable and easier to remember and recognize name for Digital Audio Player (just as Walkman was more recognized than Portable Stereo Device) and it will be very easy for consumers to adjust to the friendly new iPad without having to worry about adding complex names to their tech jargon.
Will it be successful
Yes, and that's a good thing, even for those who are not a fan of Apple and their techno-evangelistic methods. Granted, there are some real drawbacks to this thing, and the unending stream 'my iPad is so awesome' comments that those of us that actually know how to use a real computer will drive us all to drink, but this device is probably exactly what users need - an appliance that has limited user ability but allows them to do all the trivial daily stuff that is suddenly so important to all of us without the effort or risk involved in learning real technology skills. These devices will allow the un-savvy to play with the rest of us, socialize, share, and make online comments they'll regret later, and they won't actually have to know how it works, they'll just have to be able shell out cash, and like I said people will pay for convenience.
Another big reason it'll fly off the shelves initially is because it will be over-priced, not only will it allow the unskilled to appear tech savvy, it will also demonstrate wealth, or at least at first. If this device came out at the same price as your average netbook, the average person could afford it, but by pricing it almost twice as high, being an early adopter will send a strong social message to those around you that says a: I still have some money left after the big crunch and I want to be idolized, b: I still had some credit left and I want to be idolized, or c: I still live with my parents and I want to be idolized. A few generations later, however the price will come down and more and more people will be able to purchase them, and the whole craze will die down, people will start just using them and stop just showing them off, and invariably this will lead to a lot of people realizing they actually need something more useful, like a netbook, and splitting off from the herd, not unlike those who have early linux driven netbooks right now.
The end result
Steve Jobs will be elevated to sainthood by Time magazine, apple shareholders will get richer, and Steve Balmer will be demonized by apple fanboys more than ever. Any other tablet maker, even those who were out before the iPad and actually did real groundbreaking work will be ridiculed as being copycats, and even though more people will be online and loving it, society will somehow become less technically capable, more digitally vocal, and somehow even more stupid (Ur a h8er! U suxxors! iPad is 1337, I pwn u).
Even less people will know or care who Linus Torvalds is, and Farmville will become an olympic sport.
